Inspired by a recent post from Sam Altman (2025-02-09):
We are now starting to roll out AI agents, which will eventually feel like virtual co-workers.
Let’s imagine the case of a software engineering agent, which is an agent that we expect to be particularly important. Imagine that this agent will eventually be capable of doing most things a software engineer at a top company with a few years of experience could do, for tasks up to a couple of days long. It will not have the biggest new ideas, it will require lots of human supervision and direction, and it will be great at some things but surprisingly bad at others.
Still, imagine it as a real-but-relatively-junior virtual coworker. Now imagine 1,000 of them. Or 1 million of them.
Having had some “real-but-relatively-junior” coworkers, I’m familiar with how much supervision and direction they need to contribute to a product/company/team. I invest X units of my time in them; they produce X * Y units of output. If all goes well, Y > 1; reality often falls short.
There’s only so far you can scale with one person directing a team of juniors. I can work with a few; some other engineers may be able to direct a few dozen. Eventually, you get to the point where you’re spending all of your time supervising and none of it producing that output yourself. Congratulations, you’re a manager. (Yes, this is a gross oversimplification of the manager’s role.)
Is it productive for a CEO to directly supervise and direct a thousand (or a million) junior employees? I imagine few (if any) would think so. So our CEO hires managers, who hire managers, who hire managers… who supervise and direct a reasonable handful of junior employees (often mixed in with senior employees who can take an active role in mentoring the juniors). These managers coordinate their teams with all the other teams to achieve the company’s vision, with the coordination challenges growing geometrically as the company scales.
I’ll not predict whether/when AI may eventually replace senior employees or managers. But until it does, good management is our bottleneck for scaling up our “real-but-relatively-junior” armies of virtual coworkers.